Estimation of the Urban Heat Island Effect in a Reformed Urban District: A Scenario-Based Study in Hong Kong

Urban heat island (UHI), a phenomenon in which land surface temperatures (LSTs) an urban area are notably higher than that the surrounding rural area, has made living environment thermally uncomfortable, endangered public health, and increased energy consumption on indoor air cooling. To develop liveable sustainable city, it is crucial to provide accurate estimation of UHI effect for planners when transformed from bare lands high density buildings. With this objective, study develops multivariate spatial regression models based LSTs retrieved Landsat-8 thermal images estimate distribution magnitudes (i.e., UHMs, relative referenced temperature), by considering four types causative factors include use cover, morphology, source, local climate zones. Partial correlation analysis performed determine explainable variables R2 used evaluate models. Based constructed master plan buildings Kowloon East, Hong Kong, future UHM distributions forecasted representative days different seasons. Results show will be mitigated significantly new built, suggesting appropriate planning regarding environment. We found considered can largely explain daytime UHIs both built-up areas land-cover areas. The proposed method also optimize design creating more thermo-friendly